Predicting Elections for Multiple Countries Using Twitter and Polls

Predicting and Interpolating State-level Polls using Twitter Textual Data

Spatially or temporally dense polling remains both difficult and expensive using existing survey methods. In response, there have been increasing efforts to approximate various survey measures using social media, but most of these approaches remain methodologically flawed. To remedy these flaws, this paper combines 1200 state-level polls during the 2012 presidential campaign with over 100 milli...

Predicting US Primary Elections with Twitter

Using social media for political analysis is becoming a common practice, especially during election time. Many researchers and media are trying to use social media to understand the public opinion and trend. In this paper, we investigate how we could use Twitter to predict public opinion and thus predict American republican presidential election results. We analyzed millions of tweets from Sept...

Predicting the EU 2014 Election Results in Multiple Countries Using Twitter

During the latest years, the behavior of users in Twitter has been explored for various purposes, one of the most famous being the prediction of election results. Most works so far make their predictions by focusing strictly on Twitter data and are applied on some data after the elections; hence, they are biased towards the actual results. In the current work we have focused on the 2014 Europea...

Forecasting elections with non-representative polls

Election forecasts have traditionally been based on representative polls, in which randomly sampled individuals are asked for whom they intend to vote. While representative polling has historically proven to be quite effective, it comes at considerable financial and time costs. Moreover, as response rates have declined over the past several decades, the statistical benefits of representative sa...

Policies and Polls: Elections and Land Conflicts in Paser, Indonesia